[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 10 10:15:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Feb 11 Feb 12 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates a solar wind speed of
approximately 300 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remains between -/+ 2nT. Note on 11 Feb the Earth
may enter a high speed wind stream induced by a small coronal
hole just north of the solar equator.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11212012
Darwin 3 11211012
Learmonth 2 10121011
Culgoora 2 110-----
Camden 4 11212112
Canberra 3 1-112012
Hobart 3 11211012
Casey(Ant) 7 22322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb :
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2021 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 16 active
12 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is at mostly quiet levels and is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels today. Late on
11 February expect activity to increase to active levels due
to high speed coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal today
and tomorrow, except for isolated cases of spread F and sporadic
E. In two days time there may be mild depressions due to the
possibility of a weak ionospeheric storm induced by increased
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Feb 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Feb 24 near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 16 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: HF conditions have been mostly normal except for isolated
cases of sporadic E and spread F. In two days time there may
be mild depressions due to an ionospheric storm caused by an
increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 16200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list