[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 28 10:04:03 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 420 km/s
to 370 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22211101
Darwin 2 21101101
Townsville 5 12221221
Learmonth 3 22211000
Camden 1 11100001
Canberra 1 11100101
Hobart 1 11110000
Casey(Ant) 8 33321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1011 1110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 4 Quiet
29 Dec 4 Quiet
30 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 2 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
across Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 90900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list