[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 27 10:07:50 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 520 km/s
to 440 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to weaken over the next 24 hours as the effect of
the coronal hole declines further. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 21212111
Darwin 4 21112111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 21212221
Camden 4 21212111
Canberra 5 21222111
Hobart 4 21212111
Casey(Ant) 9 4--22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3221 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Dec 5 Quiet
29 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: There may be a slight rise in the geomagnetic
activity on 27 December due a recurrent solar sector boundary
crossing. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels on 28 and 29 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days with possibility
of minor to mild degradations on high latitude locations on
27 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec -7 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec -4 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
29 Dec -4 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible across Aus/NZ regions, especially in
the southern regions on 27 December. HF conditions are
expected to remain mostly normal on 28 and 29 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 565 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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