[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today. 
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s 
to 320 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to 
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three 
days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Darwin               2   11001102
      Townsville           4   12111121
      Learmonth            2   11101101
      Camden               1   11101001
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               1   00100101
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   1000 0100     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     4    Quiet 
30 Dec     4    Quiet 
31 Dec     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet 
levels for the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec     5    near predicted monthly values 
30 Dec     5    near predicted monthly values 
31 Dec     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal across 
Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 393 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    43400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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