[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 28 09:52:10 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed over the past
24 hours. The Earth encounterd a high speed coronal hole wind
stream during the first half of the UT day. Solar wind speed
is elevated at ~600km/s at the time of report issue. LASCO C3
imagery shows a mainly southward directed partial halo CME in
association with the C-class flare observed at 26/2000UT. A weak
shock from this event is possible on 29 Aug. Elevated solar wind
parameters are likely to maintain for days one and two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 12233333
Darwin 11 12233333
Learmonth 11 11233333
Culgoora 10 11133333
Camden 10 22233232
Canberra 11 11233333
Hobart 10 01133333
Casey(Ant) 16 23323443
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1110 0022
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 16 active
29 Aug 16 active
30 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream occurred
during the first half of the UT day. The Bz component of the
IMF exhibited moderate (+/-15nT) polarity fluctuations, with
no sustained periods of southward bias. The geomagnetic field
was mostly unsettled, with active intervals observed at high
latitudes only during the second half of the UT day. Solar wind
parameters should remain elevated days one and two with the chance
of active periods. A weak solar wind shock is possible day two
following an X-ray flare/CME sequence observed late in the UT
day Aug 26.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Chance of disturbed periods next three days at mid to
high latitudes due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Disturbance due to elevated solar wind parameters possible
next three days. MUF's may be briefly depressed around local
dawn at low to mid latitudes, recovering during local day. Extended
periods of disturbance possible at high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 34300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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