[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 27 09:34:43 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was generally low. Solar wind parameters
remain at nominal levels. A long-duration minor C-class flare
was observed at 20UT. Flare duration and location indicate a
possible geoeffective CME, but data is insufficient at this time
for further analysis. Increasing background solar radio noise
is observed this morning on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph. The
Earth is expected to encounter a recurrent high speed coronal
hole wind stream on day one.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Darwin 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11010000
Culgoora 1 11000001
Camden 5 11212222
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 00000000
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 1101 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 16 active
28 Aug 12 Unsettled
29 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain at nominal levels and the
geomagnetic field was quiet. IMF Bz component fluctuations late
in the UT day resulted in active intervals at high latitudes
only. The Earth is expected to encounter a recurrent coronal
hole wind stream on day one bringing active geomagnetic conditions
days one and two. Possible minor storm periods at high latitudes.
Further disturbance is possible day two or three following a
minor C-class flare at 20UT near central solar meridian. Further
analysis of this event as data becomes available.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed again at low
latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF conditions on day one. Chance
of disturbed periods next three days at mid to high latitudes
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions,
mainly local day/evening. Periods of intense spread-F observed
Niue region, mainly local morning. Expect mostly normal conditions
day one. Chance of disturbed periods S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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