[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Aug             27 Aug             28 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed continued to decline slowly over the UT day. 
A recurrent coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective 
position on day two. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               1   12100000
      Learmonth            0   01000000
      Culgoora             1   11100000
      Camden               6   22222221
      Canberra             0   01010000
      Hobart               0   01010000
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   3101 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Aug     5    Quiet 
27 Aug    16    Active 
28 Aug    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline slowly. The Bz 
component of the IMF remained mostly neutral over the UT day. 
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes and should maintain 
quiet conditions on day one. A recurrent coronal hole wind stream 
is anticipated on days two and three with the chance of active 
periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Daytime/evening depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions on day one. Chance of disturbed 
periods at mid to high latitudes days two and three due to anticipated
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions, 
mainly local day/evening. Periods of intense spread-F observed 
Niue region, mainly local morning. Expect mostly normal conditions 
day one. Chance of disturbed periods S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 
days two and three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    64200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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