[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed has declined slowly over the UT day. A recurrent 
coronal hole is expected to rotate into geoeffective position 
on day three. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12111311
      Darwin               5   12111311
      Learmonth            3   11100311
      Culgoora             3   11101211
      Camden               6   22212221
      Canberra             4   11101311
      Hobart               3   11101310
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2330 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug     5    Quiet 
26 Aug     5    Quiet 
27 Aug    16    active 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined gradually over the UT day. 
The Bz component of the IMF exhibited mild fluctuations about 
neutral. A sustained period of mild southward bias during the 
second half of the UT day resulted in active intervals at high 
latitudes only. The geomagnetic field at low to mid latitudes 
was quiet. Expect generally quiet conditions days one and two. 
A recurrent coronal hole wind stream is anticipated on day three 
with the chance of active periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild daytime/evening depressions observed at low latitudes. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next two days. Chance of disturbed 
periods at mid to high latitudes day three due to anticipated 
elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug     8    near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug     8    near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug     5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus latitudes. 
Periods of intense spread-F observed Niue region. Expect mostly 
normal conditions days one and two. Chance of disturbed periods 
at mid to high latitudes day three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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