[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed remains slightly elevated but appears to be 
in decline. Intervals of radio sweep noise observed on the Learmonth 
and Culgoora radiospectrographs as AR905 rotates onto the visible 
disk. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12301111
      Darwin               4   22300111
      Learmonth            4   12300111
      Culgoora             2   12200011
      Camden               5   12212121
      Canberra             4   13300001
      Hobart               4   13301001
      Casey(Ant)           7   33311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             17   3334 4442     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Aug     5    Quiet 
26 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Slightly elevated solar wind speed with mild fluctuations 
in the Bz component of the IMF during the first half of the UT 
day resulted in unsettled to active periods at high latitudes 
only. Otherwise the geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Expect 
continuing quiet conditions next three days. Chance of isolated 
unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
25 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Although widespread depressions reported at low to mid 
latitudes, MUF's are seasonally low. Operational values should 
not be significantly lower than predicted monthly values. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug     5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
25 Aug     5    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
26 Aug     8    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depressions observed from Equatorial to S Aus 
latitudes. Periods of spread-F observed S Aus to Antarctic latitudes. 
Expect similar conditions next three days with gradual improvement 
in higher latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 470 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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