[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 August 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 23 09:43:08 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 23 AUGUST - 25 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Aug:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Aug             24 Aug             25 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last 
24 hours. Only a few B-class flares were observed. The 
coronal hole effect seems to have come into effect later 
than earlier anticipations. The solar wind stream remained 
strengthened on 22 August with solar wind speed remaining 
between 440 km/s and 470 km/s almost the whole day. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) showed minor to moderate (approx +6nT to -10nT) 
fluctuations until 1700UT and then stayed close to the 
normal value for the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is 
expected to remain at very low to low levels for the next 
three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 22 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   23443431
      Darwin              14   23433332
      Learmonth           16   23443430
      Culgoora            14   22443331
      Camden              13   22433331
      Canberra            16   22443431
      Hobart              15   22443430
      Casey(Ant)          21   34433532
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   2422 2334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Aug    11    Quiet to unsettled 
24 Aug     8    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
25 Aug     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to 
active levels today. The reason of this rise in the activity 
level seems to be a delayed effect of a coronal hole. 
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet to 
unsettled levels on 23 August and then decline during the 
following two days as the coronal hole effect diminishes 
during that period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next 3 days with some possibility 
of minor degradations on high latitudes on 23 and 24 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Aug    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Aug    11    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Aug    12    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    13    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most Aus/NZ locations for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Aug
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    26400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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