[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 22 09:30:11 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low during the last
24 hours. Regions 905(S08E71) produced six low C-class
flares. Region 904(S12W89) produced today's largest flare,
a C4.7 flare at 1923UT. The solar wind speed remained
between 380 and 400 km/s by 0900UT and then showed a
gradual rise to 460 km/s by 1800UT. The solar wind speed
is around 430 km/s at the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly to moderately (approx. -5nT
to -9nT) southwards almost the whole day today. Solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels for the next
three days with slight chance of an M-class activity from
region 905.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22222223
Darwin 8 22222223
Learmonth 7 22122223
Culgoora 8 22222223
Camden 6 12222222
Canberra 9 22223223
Hobart 8 12223223
Casey(Ant) 11 33222224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 24 5620 2432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 6 Quiet to unsettled
23 Aug 5 Quiet
24 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels today. Similar geomagnetic conditions may
be expected on 22 August. The activity level is expected
to further decline to mostly quiet levels on 23 and 24 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degradations were observed on high and some mid
latitude locations on 21 August. HF conditions are expected
to remain mostly normal on most locations for the next 3 days
with some possibility of minor degradations on high latitudes
on 22 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with periods
of degradations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 13 Near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 13 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ locations for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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