[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 21 09:51:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low during the last
24 hours. Regions 904(S14W73) produced a few B- and
C-class flares, the largest being a C4.3 flare at
2109UT. A C1.5 flare from this region at 1344UT was
associated to a slow partial halo CME. This CME is
not expected to be significantly geoeffective on its
arrival. The solar wind speed remained between 380
and 410 km/s for almost the whole day today. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed moderate fluctuations (approx +/-10nT)
until 0500UT, then remained moderately (+10nT) positive
until 1100UT and then remained slightly (approx -5nT
to -2nT) negative for the remaining part of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels for
the next three days. A coronal hole effect may cause
some strenthening of the solar wind stream on 21 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to active with
minor storm periods.
Estimated Indices 20 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 34211322
Darwin 10 34211321
Learmonth 11 34212322
Culgoora 9 34211311
Camden 9 33211322
Canberra 9 34111311
Hobart 8 34100311
Casey(Ant) 13 34322323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 38 2112 6665
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Aug 6 Quiet
23 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
active levels with some periods of minor storm recorded at
some high latitude stations on 20 August. The activity is
expected to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on
21 August with the possibility of further decline to mostly
quiet levels on 22 and 23 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degradations were observed on high latitude
locations on 20 August. HF conditions are expected to
remain mostly normal in most locations for the next
3 days with some possibility of minor degradations on
high latitudes on 21 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Aug 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ locations for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 17.4 p/cc Temp: 68500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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