[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 20 09:48:16 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low during the last 24
hours. Regions 903 and 904 produced a few B-class flares.
Region 903 also produced a C3.8 flare at 1124UT. The
previously anticipated shock, from the CME activity that
was observed on 16 August, seems to have arrived around
1100UT today. The solar wind speed remained between 350
and 390 km/s by 1100UT and then suddenly changed to 450
km/s on the arrival of this shock. The solar wind speed
increased to a maximum of 500 km/s today and then gradually
decreased to 420 km/s by the time of this report. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained mostly slightly positive (upto approx +6nT)
until around 1100UT and then went negative on the arrival
of the shock from the 16 August's CME. Bz remained mostly
moderately negative (approx -11nT) during the rest of the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to
low levels for the next three days. A coronal hole effect
may also keep the solar wind stream strengthened on 20 and
21 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 20 22135444
Darwin 20 22234445
Learmonth 25 22135455
Culgoora 20 22135444
Camden 16 22124444
Canberra 25 22135455
Hobart 21 22125454
Casey(Ant) 18 33324434
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12 2422 2323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
21 Aug 12 Unsettled
22 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Minor storm periods were observed as per the
anticipations on 19 August due to the effect of a CME
activity on 16 August. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at unsettled to active levels with some
possibility of isolated minor storm periods on 20 August
due to the effect of the high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole. The activity level may decline to mostly
unsettled on 21 August and quiet with some possibility of
unsettled conditions on 22 August. A weak (12nT) impulse
was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 1132UT on 19 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degradations were observed on high and some mid
latitude locations on 19 August as anticipated earlier due
to enhancements in geomagnetic conditions on this day. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions are possible on
high and mid latitudes on 20 August and sometimes on 21
August due to the possibility of enhanced geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 12 Near predicted monthly values/ depressed 5%
21 Aug 14 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on
18 August and is current for interval 18-20 August. Minor
and sometimes moderate degradations in HF conditions are
possible in the Aus/NZ regions, especially in the southern
regions, on 20 August and at times on 21 August due the
possibility of enhanced geomagnetic activity levels on these
days. .
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 360 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 28800 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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