[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 19 09:52:31 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug:  89/33

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Aug             20 Aug             21 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low during the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained close to 350 km/s 
by 1600UT and then suddenly increased to around 410 km/s 
with the arrival of a possible weak shock. The solar wind 
speed then gradually decreased to 380 km/s by the time of 
this report. At this stage it is not clear if this shock 
was due to the CME activity that was observed on 16 August. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bz) remained mostly slightly southwards (upto approx 
-6nT) until around 1100UT and slightly northwards (upto 
approx +7nT) during the rest of the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low to low levels for the next 
three days. The effect of the CME observed on 16 August may 
strengthen the solar wind stream on 19 August. A coronal 
hole effect may also keep the solar wind stream strengthened 
on 20 and 21 August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22322212
      Darwin               9   22322322
      Learmonth            8   22322312
      Culgoora             7   22322212
      Camden               8   22322222
      Canberra             8   22323212
      Hobart               8   13322212
      Casey(Ant)          10   23332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1021 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Aug    25    Active to Minor storm 
20 Aug    14    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
21 Aug    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August 
and is current for interval 17-19 August. Active to minor 
storm levels may be reached on 19 August due to the effect 
of a CME that was observed on 16 August. The effect of a 
coronal hole may keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to 
unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated active 
periods on 21 August. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed 
in the IPS magnetometer data at 1643UT on 18 Aug. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Aug      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 18 August. 
Degraded HF conditions are likely on 19 August due to an 
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period. 
Isolated degradation periods may also be observed on 20 and 
21 August due to a possible rise in the geomagnetic activity 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Aug     6    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
20 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values/ depressed 5% 
21 Aug    13    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 
18 August and is current for interval 18-20 August. 
Degraded HF conditions are expected in the Aus/NZ regions on 
19 August, especially in the southern parts, due an anticipated 
rise in geomagnetic activity on this day. Some isolated 
degradaded periods are also possible on 20 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 328 km/sec  Density:    9.9 p/cc  Temp:    44900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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