[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 18 09:50:49 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Region 904
(S13W29) produced a C1.0 flare which peaked at 0430UT. The
solar wind speed increased from 280 to 360 km/s by 0700UT
and then gradually decreased to 300 km/s by the time of this
report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to moderate (+/-5nT approx.)
fluctuations almost the whole day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low to low levels for the next three days.
The effect of the CME observed on 16 August may strengthen the
solar wind stream on 18 and 19 August. A possible weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 0613UT on 17 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 02211122
Darwin 8 13312123
Learmonth 6 02312122
Culgoora 3 01211112
Camden 5 11222122
Canberra 3 01211112
Hobart 4 01311112
Casey(Ant) 5 12221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1101 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled
19 Aug 25 Active to Minor storm
20 Aug 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 16 August
and is current for interval 17-19 August. Geomagnetic activity
level is expected to rise late on 18 August to unsettled levels
with some possibility of isolated active periods. Active to
minor storm levels may be reached on 19 August due to the
effect of a CME that was observed on 16 August. The activity
level is expected to decline thereafter. A weak (13nT) impulse
was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 0721UT on 17 Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 17 on August.
Degraded HF conditions are likely from the second half
of 18 August to first half of 20 August due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected from the second
half of 18 August to the first half of 20 August in Aus/NZ
regions, especially in the southern regions, due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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