[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 17 09:32:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Aug: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Region 904 (S17W16)
produced a long duration class C3.6 flare which peaked at 1617UT.
This was associated with a full halo CME with a preliminary predicted
Earth arrival time of late 18 to early 19 Aug. This arrival time
will be refined once more data becomes available. AR904 remains
a complex and large spot region with the potential for further
flaring. Minor chance of an M-class flare from this region in
the next 24 hours. The solar wind speed remains low and the
interplanetary magnetic field Bz mostly positive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 12111101
Culgoora 1 11101001
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Aug 4 Quiet
18 Aug 7 Quiet
19 Aug 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet over the UT day today.
Similar geomagnetic conditions are expected for 17 and 18 August.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach active levels with
minor storm periods, particularly at high latitudes, on 19 August
with the arrival of a CME late 18/early 19 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
19 Aug Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 16 August. Similar
HF conditions are expected 17-18 August. Significantly degraded
HF conditions possible on 19 August due to forecast geomagnetic
disturbance.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Aug 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variably depressed and enhanced by 20% over UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by up to 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Aug 14 near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
19 Aug 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10
to 20%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
the Aus/NZ region for 17-18 August. Expect depressed conditions
on 19 August due to increasing geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Aug
Speed: 299 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 13700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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