[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 29 09:26:06 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: An impulsive C-class flare was observed at 1106 UT
orignating from AR905. Solar background radio noise was slightly
elevated over the UT day. The present coronal hole wind stream
reached a peak velocity at around 04UT, and has slowly declined
since that time. The coronal hole wind stream should persist for
day one, then gradually decline. There is a possibility of a weak
shock arrival today following the C-class flare/CME sequence
observed at 26/2000UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 33222332
Darwin 10 33222322
Learmonth 11 33222332
Culgoora 9 33222222
Camden 9 23222232
Canberra 11 33222332
Hobart 11 33222332
Casey(Ant) 16 44322--3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 49 (Unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18 2113 4543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 16 Active
30 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The present coronal hole wind stream reached a peak
velocity at around 04UT, and has gradually declined since that
time. The Bz component of the IMF has maintained a mostly neutral
to northward bias, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. Active to
minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. Quiet
to unsettled conditions were observed at low to mid latitudes.
The coronal hole wind stream should persist for day one, then
gradually decline. A weak solar wind shock is possible day one
following an X-ray flare/CME sequence observed late in the UT
day Aug 26. Brief active to minor storm interval possible following
shock passage.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of disturbed periods next two days at mid to
high latitudes due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Disturbance due to elevated solar wind parameters possible
next two days. MUF's may be briefly depressed around local dawn
Equatorial/N Aus regions, recovering during local day. Spread-F
conditions and extended periods of disturbance possible S
Aus/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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