[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 11 09:25:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 11 AUGUST - 13 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Aug: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with all recorded
activity from AR904 (S13E65), the largest event being a C4.2
flare at 1808UT. This region has shown growth in size and complexity
over the UT day and is currently a DAI beta-gamma spot group
of size 190mil. Background Xray flux has continued to increase
and is now at B3 event level. Solar activity is expected to be
low-moderate over the next 24 hours due to the possibility of
an isolated M-class flare from AR904, particularly in the event
of further growth of this region. Solar wind speeds have returned
to nominal values of ~ 440km/s, and the interplanetary Bz component
is fluctuating between +/-4nT. The expected entry on 10 Aug into
a coronal hole wind stream did not eventuate.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 904.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11201012
Darwin 4 22201012
Learmonth 2 11101002
Culgoora 2 11101002
Camden 5 11211222
Canberra 2 11100012
Hobart 1 10101001
Casey(Ant) 7 22321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2313 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Aug 5 Quiet
12 Aug 4 Quiet
13 Aug 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the UT
day with an isolated active period at high latitudes ~2200UT
due to substorm actvity. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions
to prevail over the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Some depressions were
observed at equatorial and sub-equatorial latitudes, particularly
during the day. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail
at all latitudes, with a strengthening ionosphere over the next
few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values
13 Aug 20 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The equatorial PNG/Niue and north Australian regions
suffered ionospheric MUF depressions of up to 15% during the
day, otherwise the ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly
normal. Expect mostly normal conditions to prevail.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
** ACE Satellite Solar Wind Data was not available for 09 Aug
at the time of this report **
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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