[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 10 09:16:26 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. Low activity
levels are expected to continue, however Xray flux levels are
increasing with the emergence of a new flux region on the eastern
limb, newly labelled AR904. The Earth is presently moving out
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream which has seen solar
wind speeds elevated to ~650km/s. The wind speed is now declining
and was closer to 450km/s at the end of the UT day 09 Aug. The
interplanetary Bz component is fluctuating between +/-4nT. The
effects of the current coronal hole will disipate over the day,
however another weak cornal hole is moving into a geoeffective
position and may cause a small increase in the solar wind over
the next 1-2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 12232112
Darwin 7 22232112
Learmonth 7 12133112
Culgoora 6 12132112
Camden 8 22232222
Canberra 8 12142212
Hobart 7 12142112
Casey(Ant) 11 23323223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Charters_Towers 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2343 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled
with an isolated active period at mid and low latitudes pre noon.
Expect the geomagnetic field to remain quiet to unsettled over
the UT day as the solar wind speed continues to decline. Another
fast solar wind stream may cause unsettled conditions over the
next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Some depressions were
observed at equatorial and sub-equatorial latitudes, particularly
during the day, with some isolated cases of sporadic E also noted.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail at all latitudes,
with a strengthening ionosphere over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 12 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 20 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The equatorial PNG/Niue and north Australian regions
suffered ionospheric MUF depressions of up to 25% over the UT
day, otherwise the ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly
normal. Expect mostly normal conditions to prevail.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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