[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 12 AUGUST - 14 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Aug:  84/26


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Aug             13 Aug             14 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with all recorded 
activity from AR904 (S14E56). This region continues to grow in 
size and produced three C-class flares in the period, the largest 
a C2.8. Background Xray flux has decreased to a level just above 
A event level. Solar activity is expected to be low over the 
next 24 hours however there remains the possibility of an isolated 
M-class flare from AR904, particularly in the event of further 
development of this region. Solar wind speeds remained at ~440km/s 
over the day, and the interplanetary Bz component is fluctuating 
between +/-5nT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112111
      Darwin               4   12112111
      Learmonth            3   12112110
      Culgoora             3   12112101
      Camden               6   22122212
      Canberra             3   12112100
      Hobart               3   12112100
      Casey(Ant)           8   23223221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1100 1203     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Aug     4    Quiet 
13 Aug     4    Quiet 
14 Aug     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet over the UT 
day with some unsettled periods at high latitudes resulting from 
extended periods of mildly southward IMF. Expect quiet geomagnetic 
conditions to prevail over the next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Expect mostly normal 
HF conditions to prevail at all latitudes over the next few days. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Aug    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values 
13 Aug    22    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
14 Aug    22    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal. 
Expect mostly normal conditions to prevail with a strengthening 
ionosphere over the next few days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Aug
Speed: 443 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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