[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 550 km/s. The interplanetary 
Bz component has fluctuated around zero for the last 24 hours 
with a short period around 10 and 21 UTC where it went southward. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Darwin               5   22221112
      Learmonth            5   22222012
      Culgoora             6   22221212
      Camden               7   22222222
      Canberra             7   22322212
      Hobart               6   22222212
      Casey(Ant)          12   34332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   2443 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Aug     6    Quiet 
05 Aug     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to return to quiet as coronal 
hole rotates out of geoeffective position. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect normal conditions for this period in the solar 
cycle with possible isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    14    near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    12    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 580 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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