[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar wind is presently 500 km/s. The interplanetary 
Bz component has fluctuated between +/-3 nT for the last 24 hours. 
A weak coronal hole will enter into a geoeffective position in 
3 days time. This may cause some geomagnetic activity in the 
high latitudes, active levels. Otherwise, expect quiet levels 
for the next two days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22112011
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Learmonth            3   21211011
      Culgoora             2   11101011
      Camden               5   22112121
      Canberra             2   11102010
      Hobart               2   11002010
      Casey(Ant)           8   332221-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3233 2113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug     6    Quiet 
05 Aug     6    Quiet 
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to remain quiet for the 
next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    16    near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    14    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal condition to prevail in the Australian 
region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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