[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  73/9

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The solar wind has decreased from 650 km/s at approx. 13
UT to about 540 km/s at the present time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to active with
minor storm levels 09 to 12 UT at Learmonth and Hobart. 

Estimated Indices 01 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23343311
      Darwin              12   23343311
      Learmonth           16   23353401
      Culgoora            10   13243301
      Camden              11   22243322
      Canberra            12   13344300
      Hobart              15   13354310
      Casey(Ant)          12   33432-21
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Aug : 
      Charters_Towers      0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            47   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12   2333 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug    10    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
04 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 Aug    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      No data available since 1300 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted to 30% enhanced.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  11

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E was observed at all latitudes, occurring 
in the afternoon and night hours. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 523 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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