[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              70/5

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active periods. A minor storm period was observed at
Learmonth and Casey. 

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   22334221
      Darwin              12   23334221
      Learmonth           14   23335221
      Culgoora             8   12323221
      Camden               9   22323222
      Canberra             9   12333221
      Hobart               9   12323322
      Casey(Ant)          17   23345322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul : 
      Charters_Towers     57   (Unsettled)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              46   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2210 0112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    18    Unsettled to active with the possibility of a 
                minor storm period. 
02 Aug    10    Mostly unsettled. 
03 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 10 was issued on 31 July and 
is current for interval 1 August only. The effects of the coronal 
hole occurred earlier than expected. Active conditions are expected 
today with activity declining on the 2 and 3 August. There is 
the possibility of an isolated minor storm period today but mostly 
at higher latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair          
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
31 Jul    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
      from 07 to 15 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 40%.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% at times mostly at mid and high latitudes. 
02 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug    10    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Sporadic E was observed in the afternoon and early evening 
hours at many stations. Depressed conditions are possible today, 
particularly at higher latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 414 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    53300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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