[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 29 09:49:15 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. The most significant
X-ray flare of the period was a C1.9 at 0826UT from region 0875
(S12E10). This region is now classified as a DAC beta-gamma spot
group and although it appears to be declining, remains active
and is likely to produce further C-class flares over the next
two days. There is also a chance of an isolated M-class flare
from this region. Trailing region 0876 (S16E35) has increased
slightly in size over the period but remains otherwise largely
stable. A discontinuity occurred in the solar wind at ~00UT,
associated with some large IMF Bz fluctuations, after which solar
wind speed increased steadily to ~440km/s. The discontinuity
was likely a glancing blow from the eastward directed CME which
occurred on 25 April.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 875.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 10 32432111
Darwin 10 32432112
Learmonth 10 32432111
Culgoora 9 32432001
Camden 5 21------
Canberra 9 32432011
Hobart 6 23321001
Casey(Ant) 10 33431111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Apr :
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Apr 5 Quiet
01 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally unsettled over the
UT day, particularly in the first half of the day with a period
of active conditions 06-09UT. The activity was due to a solar
wind discontinuity and large interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
fluctuations associated with a glancing blow from a CME. The
magnetic field activity returned to quiet levels in the latter
half of the day which is expected to continue. The outlook is
for generally quiet conditions next 3 days unless an extended
period of IMF Bz southwards (>12hrs) occurs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
01 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at low and mid
latitudes. High latitudes showed some depressions and minor disturbances
during the day, likely associated with the solar wind activity.
These conditions are expected to continue in the absence of major
M class flaring activity from AR875.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10% during local day
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 40 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 41 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
01 May 42 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day.
MUFs generally well above predicted monthly values. Some high
latitude stations observed daytime depressions depending on location,
likely related to solar wind activity. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected for the next three days with a continued strengthening
of the ionosphere due to extra ionising solar radiation from
active regions 875 and 876. MUFs generally above predicted monthly
values by 10-25%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 43600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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