[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 28 09:38:33 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.9    1552UT  probable   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has again been low to moderate over the 
UT day. Region 875 has still provided all the flare activity 
with an M7.9 at ~1530UT against a background of four B class 
flares. A higher peak activity against a lower background than 
yesterday. The SOHO spacecraft LASCO instrument did not appear 
to show a CME due to the M7.9 flare. AR875 is still east of solar 
central meridian so CMEs are not very likely be Earth directed. 
AR875 exhibited activity around it's rim and still has the potential 
for large C and M class flares as it rotates into geoeffective 
position in the next few days. Trailing regions 876 and 877 have 
not exhibited flare activity. The solar wind varied between 310 
and 350 km/sec and is trending low at 310km/s near 23UT. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101111
      Darwin               3   21101111
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Culgoora             1   11101001
      Camden               4   21112112
      Canberra             1   11001001
      Hobart               2   11101101
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2211 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     4    Quiet 
29 Apr     4    Quiet 
30 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. Major 
coronal holes are not in evidence on the solar disc and solar 
wind speed is low, declining to 310 km/sec, suggesting little 
viscous interaction with the geomagnetic field. Solar interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) Bz component observed on the ACE spacecraft 
only showed sustained southward orientation from 00-04UT and 
12-15UT. This was only long enough to slightly excite high latitudes 
and not the global magnetic field. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions 
for the next 3 days, unless further M class flares from AR875 
produce geoeffective CMEs or an extended period of IMF Bz southwards 
(>12hrs) occurs. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at mid and high 
latitudes. Low latitudes appeared to be disturbed and enhanced 
across the local night although there was significant geographic 
variation in the conditions. High latitudes exhibited typical 
spread winter, low solar input, conditions with minor disturbances, 
probably due to the two periods of 3-5hour IMF Bz southwards 
moderately enhancing polar convection. These conditions are expected 
to continue in the absence of major M class flaring activity 
from AR875 or sustained IMF Bz southward conditions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 15% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    31    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    31    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    32    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day. 
Some low latitude stations again observed nighttime enhancements, 
including pre-dusk or pre-dawn bulges depending on location. 
PNG sector seemed to most affected with strong nightime absorption 
also observed at Vanimo. Strong sporadic activity observed over 
NZ pre-dawn. High latitudes near the polar cap appeared enhanced. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next three days 
with a slightly strengthening ionosphere due to extra ionising 
solar radiation from active regions 875,876 and 877. MUFs generally 
above predicted monthly values by 10-25%. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 355 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    60300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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