[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 27 09:36:30 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.3    1703UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low to moderate over the UT 
day. Region 875 provided all the flare activity with an M1.3 
near 17UT, numerous B and C class flares including a C9.1 at 
1430UT. The SOHO spacecraft LASCO instrument didn't show a CME 
and due to AR875 position east of solar central meridian any 
CME would not likely be Earth directed. AR875 appears to be slightly 
decreasing in magnetic complexity to beta-gamma and flare intensity 
is trending down but it still has the potential for large C or 
low M class flares as it rotates into geoeffective position in 
the next few days. Trailing AR876 has not exhibited flare activity 
although it is quite large. AR876 shows moderate magnetic complexity 
(beta) that does not appear to have increased. A new AR877 was 
numbered today. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               1   20100001
      Learmonth            1   21010000
      Culgoora             0   11000000
      Camden               3   11111121
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               1   01020000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5   3000 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     4    Quiet 
28 Apr     4    Quiet 
29 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. Major 
coronal holes are not in evidence on the solar disc and solar 
wind speed is low and has been declining from 380 to 340 km/sec, 
suggesting little viscous interaction with the geomagnetic field. 
IMF Bz observed on the ACE spacecraft has been northward since 
14UT and so reconnection has not driven the field. Expect quiet 
geomagnetic conditions for the next 3 days, unless flares from 
AR875 produce geoeffective CMEs or an extended period of IMF 
Bz southwards occurs. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
These conditions are expected to continue in the absence of major 
flaring activity from AR875. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 10% above predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    35    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
28 Apr    37    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    40    10 to 25% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day. 
Near equatorial latitudes observed 2-3 hour pre-dusk or pre-dawn 
MUF enhancements and then depressions, depending on location. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next three days 
with a strengthening ionosphere due to extra ionising solar radiation 
from AR875 and AR876. MUFs generally above predicted monthly 
values by 10-25%. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 391 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    49200 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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