[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 30 09:47:37 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 30 APRIL - 02 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Apr: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Apr             01 May             02 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. Three C-class 
flares were recorded over the period, one (C1.1 at 29/1852) from 
region 0875, and two (C2.3 at 28/2336 and C2.3 at 29/1631) from 
a new active region on the east limb. Both of the latter were 
associated with an eastward directed CME visible in SOHO LASCO 
imagery, however neither are expected to significantly impact 
the Earth. Minor plage enhancements and material motion of small 
dark filaments was noted by Learmonth observatory in regions 
0875 and 0876 early in the UT day. Region 0875 (S08W03) remains 
a Dkc beta-gamma spot group and may produce further C-class flares 
over the next day. Further flaring is also possible from the 
new active region on the east limb. The interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) was very quiet over the period and solar wind speed 
has returned to ~350km/s after yesterday's high of 450km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Darwin               3   21110102
      Learmonth            1   21000001
      Culgoora             0   10000001
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   11000000
      Casey(Ant)           7   323110--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Apr : 
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   3352 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Apr     3    Quiet 
01 May     2    Quiet 
02 May     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day, due 
in part to very quiet interplantary magnetic field (IMF) conditions 
and a low solar wind speed. With no high speed solar wind streams 
or CMEs expected, the outlook is for continuing quiet conditions 
next 3 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
These conditions are expected to continue next three days in 
the absence of major M class flaring activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Apr    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 15% above
predicted monthly values. 

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Apr    36    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 May    39    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
02 May    41    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day 
with MUFs generally well above predicted monthly values. Mostly 
normal HF conditions expected next three days with the strong 
ionosphere expected to continue due to extra ionising solar radiation 
from solar active regions 875, 876 and a new active region rotating 
onto the visible disk. MUFs generally above predicted monthly 
values by 10-20%. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Apr
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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