[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 22 09:21:59 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, the most 
notable flare being a B4.5 from region 0871 on the western limb 
at 0049UT. Background X-ray flux has increased further to just 
below B event level. New flux regions are visible on the eastern 
limb, possibly returning regions 0865 and 0866. On the previous 
rotation (06 Apr) Region 0865 produced two M-class flares. Solar 
activity however is expected to be very low to low over the UT 
day. The solar wind and IMF were steady for the first half of 
the UT day from when the IMF showed some large fluctuations, 
and the solar wind increased to be 550km/s at the time of this 
report, likey the effects of a weak coronal hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11112311
      Darwin               6   21112322
      Learmonth            5   11112321
      Culgoora             4   11012311
      Camden               5   11112312
      Canberra             5   11112311
      Hobart               5   02112311
      Casey(Ant)           6   12322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            17   (Quiet)
      Hobart              36   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   0111 2201     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over the 
UT day. Activity levels increased in the second half of the UT 
day with the arrival of fast solar wind stream and associated 
IMF instability. Expect similar quiet to unsettled conditions 
today with the continuation of elevated solar wind speeds, 
returning to quiet conditions by late 23 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
Expected to continue next three days. Isolated intervals of 
degraded HF possible at high latitudes 22 April. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    23    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day. 
Minor MUF depressions observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG 
region, and MUF enhancements observed overnight in the S.Aus/NZ 
region. Expect mostly normal conditions with a strengthening 
ionosphere over the next three days. MUFs near to slightly above 
predicted monthly values. Minor disturbances possible at high 
latitudes 22 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:    31900 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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