[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 23 09:37:53 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr:  82/23


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with all significant 
activity originating from the new flux regions currently rotating 
onto the visible disk (east limb). The most notable flare of 
the period was a C2.6 at 1639UT. The new flux regions are possibly 
returning spot regions 0865 and 0866. On the previous rotation 
(06 Apr) Region 0865 produced two M-class flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be low over the UT day, with the possibility of 
further C-class flares from the east limb. The solar wind speed 
is currently elevated (600km/s) and the IMF has steadied after 
a period of large Bz fluctuations which included sustained periods 
of strongly southward orientation. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled. Minor storm
periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33332111
      Darwin              10   33332211
      Learmonth           12   43342111
      Culgoora             9   33332111
      Camden              10   33332211
      Canberra            11   33342211
      Hobart               9   33332101
      Casey(Ant)          15   44442111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1221 2422     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
24 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to unsettled 
at mid to low latitudes over the UT day. Minor storming occurred 
at high latitudes over the first half of the UT day in response 
to large IMF Bz fluctuations, and sustained periods of southward 
IMF. Expect generally quiet to unsettled conditions to prevail 
in response to the continuing elevated solar wind speed. Isolated 
active periods possible at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at mid and low 
latitudes. Isolated periods of degraded HF observed at high 
latitudes. These conditions are expected to continue. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    39    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    42    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    42    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day. 
MUF enhancements observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG region 
and overnight in the S.Aus/NZ region. The ionosphere is expected 
to continue strengthening. Mostly normal HF conditions expected 
with MUFs generally above predicted monthly values. Minor 
disturbances possible at high latitudes 23 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 390 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    61700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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