[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 21 09:15:29 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Very low           Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over previous the UT day. 
Region 0871 produced two B class flares, however this region 
has now rotated off the visible disk. Region 0874 (S02W10) has 
grown in size and has the potential to produce isolated C-class 
flares. Background X-ray flux has increased from the low level 
of the previous few days. The solar wind remained steady at ~400km/s 
over the UT day, and the IMF was generally northward apart from 
a persistent southward orientation 10-15UT. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 865 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 22 Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12122100
      Darwin               4   12122201
      Learmonth            6   12232210
      Culgoora             3   11122100
      Camden               3   11122101
      Canberra             2   01122100
      Hobart               2   01122100
      Casey(Ant)           8   23332110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2012 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Apr     6    Quiet 
23 Apr     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet over the UT 
day with an unsettled period 10-15UT corresponding to an interval 
of persistently southward IMF. Expect similar quiet to unsettled 
conditions today, and quiet conditions 22-23 April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
Expected to continue next three days. Isolated intervals of degraded 
HF possible at high latitudes 21 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    19    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day. 
Minor MUF depressions observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG 
region, and MUF enhancements observed overnight in the S.Aus/NZ 
region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with 
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Minor disturbances possible 
at high latitudes 21 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    44300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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