[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 20 09:10:44 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
background X-ray flux remains at very low levels. This is expected 
to continue. A small coronal hole which passed solar central 
meridian late on 17 April may produce elevated solar wind speeds 
over the next 24-48 hours. Currently, solar wind speed is below 
400km/s. IMF Bz remained close to zero throughout the UT day. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110101
      Darwin               2   21100111
      Learmonth            1   10110100
      Culgoora             2   11020101
      Camden               3   11121101
      Canberra             1   10020000
      Hobart               2   10120010
      Casey(Ant)           6   23311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     7    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. A small 
equatorial coronal hole may produce briefly unsettled conditions 
late on 20 April, early 21 April. Otherwise expect generally 
quiet conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed low to mid latitudes. 
Strong sporadic E observed local night at high latitudes. Expect 
mostly normal conditions next three days with minor degradation 
possible at high latitudes local dawn 21 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    24    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    16    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed and expected 
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. Strong sporadic E observed overnight 
in S.Ocean/Antarctic region. Expect mostly normal conditions 
next three days. Possible high latitude disturbances around 
local dawn 21 April. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list