[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 19 09:26:39 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar background 
X-ray flux has declined to very low levels. A weak westward directed 
CME was first visible in LASCO C3 imagery at 17/2118. This was 
possibly associated with surging in active regions 871/873 near 
the west solar limb. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet. Unsettled to active high
latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22110111
      Darwin               3   21110112
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Culgoora             3   22110111
      Camden               4   22111111
      Canberra             3   22110101
      Hobart               3   22110111
      Casey(Ant)           9   43221212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2110 1213     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     5    Quiet 
21 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet. Elevated solar 
wind speed with moderate southward bias in the Bz component early 
in the day resulted in geomagnetic storm conditions at polar 
cusp latituds only. Solar wind parameters declined steadily after 
06UT, with quiet conditions observed at all latitudes over the 
second half of the UT day. A small equatorial coronal hole may 
produce briefly unsettled conditions late on day one to early 
on day two. Otherwise expect generally quiet conditions next 
three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed low to mid latitudes. 
Periods of disturbance/depressions mostly local night at high 
latitudes. Expect generally improving conditions next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Periods of disturbance local night.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed and expected Equatorial/Aus/NZ 
regions. Periods of disturbance observed S Ocean/Antarctic region, 
mainly local night. Expect mostly normal conditions next three 
days. Possible high latitude disturbances around local dawn days 
1-2. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    79500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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