[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 18 09:33:22 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. The present 
coronal hole wind stream is in decline. Its imbedded magnetic 
field has remained close to neutral over the past 24 hours, limiting 
geomagnetic activity. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111112
      Darwin               3   21101112
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Culgoora             3   21110102
      Camden               4   21111112
      Canberra             3   21110112
      Hobart               3   21110112
      Casey(Ant)           9   23321123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              85   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   4322 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     5    Quiet 
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has declined to mostly quiet. Solar 
wind speed remains elevated, but has declined slowly over the 
UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
has remained close to neutral most of the day. There has been 
a minor Bz southward excursion in progress since about 17UT, 
resulting in unsettled to active geomagnetic intervals at polar 
cusp latitudes only. Otherwise conditions were quiet with brief 
unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes only early in the 
UT day. Conditions should remain mostly quiet, with possible 
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes days one and two. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
19 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-fair   
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs mildly depressed during local day. 
Variable periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar 
conditions days one and two due to persistence of a high speed 
coronal hole wind stream. Conditions generally improving day 
three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
      with variable periods of disturbance.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     5    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr     5    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable regional HF conditions observed again under 
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. N Aus/S 
Aus MUFs generally depressed, especially around local dawn. S 
Ocean/Antarctic HF conditions variable with localised periods 
of disturbance. The disturbance is due to a coronal hole wind 
stream which is in decline. Expect continuing mild depressions 
N/S Aus regions and variable disturbances S Ocean/Antarctic regions 
next 1-2 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 607 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   158000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list