[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 17 09:32:23 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. The present 
coronal hole wind stream persists, but its imbedded magnetic 
field has remained close to neutral over the past 24 hours, with 
a subsequent decline in geomagnetic disturbance. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22233211
      Darwin               8   22233212
      Learmonth            7   222-----
      Culgoora             7   22232211
      Camden               7   22232212
      Canberra             8   22233211
      Hobart               8   22233211
      Casey(Ant)          14   34433221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              73   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             29   3544 3543     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated, but has declined 
slowly over the second half of the UT day. Solar wind magnetic 
field has remained close to neutral over the UT day, resulting 
in a significant decline in geomagnetic activity from the levels 
of the past two days. Regional conditions were generally quiet, 
remaining unsettled to active only at polar cusp latitudes. A 
mild step increase in solar wind parameters was observed after 
10UT, resulting in a brief interval of elevated geomagnetic activity 
at 1130UT. Geomagnetic activity is likely to continue to decline 
to mainly quiet conditions over the next three days. Possible 
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes days one and two. 
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data 
at 1126UT on 16 Apr. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
18 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs depressed around local dawn. Extended 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions 
days one and two due to persistence of a high speed coronal hole 
wind stream. Conditions generally improving day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance. 

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable regional HF conditions observed again under 
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. S Aus/NZ 
MUFs generally depressed, especially around local dawn. Sporadic 
E conditions observed some stations around local dawn. S Ocean/Antarctic 
conditions poor with extended periods of disturbance. The disturbance 
is due to a coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline 
days one and two. Expect continuing variable HF conditions next 
1-2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 605 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   223000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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