[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 16 09:34:25 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. Solar wind speed 
peaked at 700 km/s at 1445UT and remains above 550 km/s at the 
time of report issue, under the influence of a coronal hole wind 
stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 15 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      21   23454432
      Darwin              18   23354332
      Learmonth           28   33355543
      Culgoora            20   23454332
      Camden              20   23454332
      Canberra            25   23464333
      Hobart              26   24554433
      Casey(Ant)          20   43443-42
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr : 
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        32
           Planetary             58   4677 5544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr    20    Quiet to active, chance minor storm. 
17 Apr    15    Quiet to active. 
18 Apr     5    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for interval 15-16 April. Solar wind speed peaked 
over the mid-part of the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field maintained a mild (~5nT) soutward bias over the 
UT day. A period of active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions 
was observed at all latitudes over the mid part of the UT day, 
declining to quiet to unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes 
later in the day. Expect continuing unsettled to active conditions 
day one, with possible minor storm periods at mid to high latitudes. 
Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to unsettled by day 
two, becoming mostly quiet on day three. The cause of the disturbance 
is an extensive northern hemisphere coronal hole, currently in 
the mid-western solar hemisphere. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs depressed around local dawn. Extended 
periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions 
days one and two due to persistence of a high speed coronal hole 
wind stream. Conditions generally improving day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day/night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr    10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr     5    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 15 April 
and is current for interval 15-16 April. Variable regional HF 
conditions observed again under the influence of a high speed 
coronal hole wind stream. S Aus/NZ MUFs generally depressed, 
especially around local dawn. Sporadic E conditions observed 
some stations around local dawn. S Ocean/Antarctic conditions 
poor with extended periods of disturbance due to minor geomagnetic 
storming. The disturbance is due to a coronal hole wind stream 
which is expected to persist for day one, declining later on 
day two. Expect continuing variable HF conditions next 1-2 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   143000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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