[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 8 08:23:28 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Apr             09 Apr             10 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: Solar regions located in the far western solar hemisphere 
have simplified magnetically. Solar region 867(S16W44) produced 
an impulse C9.7 class flare at 0803UT. A coronal hole is visible 
in SOHO EIT/SXI imagery. Also, SOHO EIT/SXI imagery shows emission 
near the eastern solar limb, indicating another spot group will 
rotate onto the solar disk in coming days. Solar wind speed declined 
from 390 to 340km/sec over the past 24 hours. Another mild increase 
in wind speed is possible due to the coronal hole, if the recent 
increase over the last two days was not associated with this 
hole. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11112001
      Darwin               2   12111000
      Learmonth            2   21002000
      Culgoora             2   11002001
      Camden               3   11112101
      Canberra             2   01102001
      Hobart               1   01002001
      Casey(Ant)           6   23222101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr : 
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10   1342 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Apr    16    active 
10 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next few days. Active 
conditions 09 April due to coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at mid to high latitudes 
local night hours, due to geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Apr    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions obsereved in the Aus/NZ 
region. Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during 
local night hours next two to three days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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