[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 9 10:01:36 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Apr             10 Apr             11 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              80/20
COMMENT: A coronal hole is visible onthe solar disk. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 08 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122111
      Darwin               4   11121112
      Learmonth            4   11122112
      Culgoora             3   10122111
      Camden               4   11122111
      Canberra             3   00122111
      Hobart               3   11112101
      Casey(Ant)           7   22322112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1010 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Apr    13    Unsettled to Active 
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Apr    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
10 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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