[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    0533UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    2042UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Apr             08 Apr             09 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48              95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 865 S11W60 produced two isolated M1 events 
Solar wind speed remains moderately elevated at 400km/sec. Solar 
wind speed may remain elevated next few days. A coronal hole 
is visible in SOHO EIT imagery near solar central meridian. Assuming 
current elevated wind speed conditions are not from this hole, 
then the wind stream from this hole should reach the Earth in 
about 2 to 3 days time. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 06 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22423111
      Darwin               8   22323112
      Learmonth            7   22323111
      Culgoora            10   32423111
      Camden               9   22423111
      Canberra             8   12423011
      Hobart               8   12423011
      Casey(Ant)          11   34323111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr : 
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            5   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             29   3445 5432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
08 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
09 Apr    16    active 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods possible next few days. Active 
conditions 09 April due to coronal hole wid stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Apr    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values / enhanced to 10%. 
08 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values / enhanced to 10%. 
09 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions again observed yesterday. Generally 
expect normal HF conditions expected. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
may be experienced during local night hours next two to three 
days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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