[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 6 09:13:42 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solat region 867 located at S17W22 on the solar disk 
produced two impulsive C class events. Further isolated low level 
flaring may be possible from 867. The north south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mildly southward (8nT) 
during the interval 00-14UT, afterwhich Bz swung northward. Solar 
wind speed increased from 300 to 400km/sec. This increasing velocity 
trend suggests a coronal hole signature in the solar wind. However, 
the coronal hole feature on the solar disk is to the east of 
solar central meridian (CM), normally coronal hole wind stream 
effects are observed 2-3 days after CM passage. This may mean 
that solar wind speeds will remain moderately elevated over the 
next 2 to 3 days. 



IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 865,number 867.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   23335332
      Darwin              21   23246332
      Learmonth            3   1-------
      Culgoora             9   2223----
      Camden              17   23335332
      Canberra            24   23346342
      Hobart              13   2334-331
      Casey(Ant)          11   33224221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             28                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   0013 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
07 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
08 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Mild overnight geomagentic activity in association with 
mild southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. The 
IMF has now swung northward so mild activity may decline today, 
depsite mildly elevated solar wind conditions. Isolated active 
periods remain possible next two days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed yesterday. MUFs in the 
Aus/NZ region have not responded to mild over night geomagnetic 
activity. Generally expect normal HF conditions to prevail today. 
Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local 
night hours next two to three days southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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