[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
GOES spacecraft shows several B-class flares during this period 
associated with region 10867. 10865 has grown to 650 mils in 
area but appears stable at this time. C-class flares may occur 
today with a slight chance of a M-class flare. Expect solar activity 
to be low for the next 2-3 days. Solar wind velocity has gradually 
increased to 330km/s. The ACE spacecraft shows the Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field shiftng southward at 0630 
UT 4 April. Initially to -10nT and presently at -7nT. 



IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 865,number 866.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12222222
      Darwin               5   11221222
      Learmonth            9   11222333
      Culgoora             5   11222122
      Camden               5   11221222
      Canberra             7   12222223
      Hobart               6   12222222
      Casey(Ant)           9   23321123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    12    Unsettled 
06 Apr    12    Unsettled 
07 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 2 days 
mainly because the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field is oriented southward. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Isolated cases of spread F at high 
latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for today. However, 
in the next 2 days disturbances may occur due to the southward 
orientation of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values 
06 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Apr    25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today. However, 
over the next 2-3 days expect possible mild disturbances and 
slightly depressed MUFs. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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