[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 10 09:53:02 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.6 08/2306UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.0    0219UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.1    0237UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X1.2    0300UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M6.2    0550UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X3.6    0959UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  M1.9    1751UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  X6.2    2004UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep:  99/46

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     High to very high  High to very high  High to very high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very high on 09 September as 
region 808(S09E53) produced several X, M and C-class flares. 
The details of the major flares are as follows: M1.0(0219UT), 
M1.1(0236UT), X1(0300UT), M1.8(0503UT), M6.2(0548UT), X3.6(0959UT), 
M1.9(1751UT) and X6.2(2004UT). Due to particle contamination 
and unavailability of some LASCO images no CME activity could 
be associated to these flares. However, a Type II and a Type IV 
radio bursts seem to be associated with the X6.2 flare with an 
estimated shock speed of 959 km/s. Region 808 remains large 
in size (approx 1400 millionth of the visible disk area) and 
magnetically very complex. It can produce more major flares 
during the next few days. The anticipated shock from the very 
bright and fast CME, that was associated to the X17 flare on 
07 September, seems to have arrived around 1315UT when the solar 
wind speed and Bz showed considerable variations and a sudden 
impulse (30 nT) was recorded by the Boulder magnetometer soon 
after the arrival of this shock. The >10MeV proton event that 
started at 0235UT/08 September and the >100MeV proton event 
that started at 1925UT/08 September are expected to continue 
for the next two days. The solar wind speed remained 
close to 350 km/s until the arrival of the CME shock at 1315UT 
and then both fast (450km/s) and slow (270 km/s) particles seem 
to have been received during the rest of the UT day. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) remained close to the normal value almost the whole day 
until around 1300UT and showed mild to moderate fluctuations 
during the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to 
remain at high to very high levels during the next few days. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1316UT on 
09 Sep. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 09/1245UT, which can be a precursor to 
increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   2212 5433
      Learmonth           17   2213 5433
      Culgoora            15   3212 5333
      Canberra            14   1212 5333
      Hobart              13   2212 4433
      Casey(Ant)          24   33-3 5443
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   3211 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    16    Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods 
                possible. 
11 Sep    23    Mostly unsettled to active, minor and isolated 
                major storm periods possible. 
12 Sep    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected 
during the next three days with possibility of minor storm 
periods on 10 September and minor to isolated major storm 
periods on 11 September due to CME activities from a very 
active region on the visible disk. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is 
in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
11 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor          
12 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Shortwave fadeouts continued to be observed today 
also due to flare activities on a very active region on the 
visible solar disk. As more major flares are expected from 
this region, more shortwave fadeouts may be observed during 
the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Sep    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                10% 
11 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                15% 
12 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 
7 September and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs).
Due to a good possibility of strong flare activities from a
very active region, short wave fadeouts may be observed during 
the day time during in the next few days. Also minor to moderate 
depressions in MUFs may also be observed in Aus/NZ regions during 
the next three days due to an anticipated rise in the geomagnetic 
activity levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 379 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    47400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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