[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 9 09:52:56 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 07/2301UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 1703UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.1 2029UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
X5.4 2106UT observed all East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 08 September as one
X5.4(2106UT), two M2(at 1703UT and 2029UT) and several
C-class flares were recorded from the very active region
808(S09E66). Due to the unavailability of SOHO and LASCO
imagery no conclusions can be made at this stage about the
possible CME activities related to these flares. However,
a shock from the very bright and fast CME, that was
associated to the X17 flare on 07 September, may be recorded
on the earth, although this CME is not directly moving towards
the earth. A >10MeV proton event started at 0235UT/08 September
and is currently in progerss. Also a >100MeV proton event
started at 1925UT/08 September and it is also currently in
progress. Both these events are expected to continue on
09 September. The solar wind speed decreased from 390 to
360 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at high levels during the next few days
as the region 808 remains complex and very active.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event
beginning 08/0915UT, which can be a precursor to increased
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 1212 1212
Learmonth 4 1211 1221
Culgoora 4 1212 1213
Canberra 4 1212 1212
Hobart 4 1212 1212
Casey(Ant) 8 2331 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 15 4323 2441
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 16 Quiet to unsettled, active periods possible.
10 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected
during the next three days with possibility of active periods
on 09 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and
is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Sever shortwave fadeouts were observed in the
daylit regions around 2106UT on 08 September due to a large
flare (X5.4) around this time. Due to the presence of a very
active region on the visible disk, more flares are expected.
This may cause shortwave fadeouts in the daylit regions during
the next few days. However, if the flare activities don't
happen, mostly normal conditions may be expected in most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values for short
periods with severe degradations.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 16 near predicted monthly values /depressed 5%
10 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
7 September and is current for interval 8-10 September (SWFs) .
Due to a good possibility of strong flare activities from a
very active regions short wave fadeouts may be observed during
the day time in the next few days. However, if the flare
activities don't happen, mostly normal conditions may be
expected in most Aus/NZ regions during the next few days.
Also there is some possibility of minor to mild depressions
in MUFs in Southern Australian/NZ regions on 09 September due
to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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