[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 8 09:53:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 06/2305UT possible lower West Pacific
Y1.7 1740UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 07 September as an X17 flare
was observed around 1740UT from a very active region 808(S12E82),
which is currently rotating onto the visible disk. This flare,
the 4th largest flare in the last 15 years, was associated to
a Type II and IV radio bursts and a fast and bright CME. This
CME is not earthward directed. The solar wind speed decreased
from 430 to 380 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
slightly to moderately southward during the first half of the
UT day and slightly to moderately northward during the second
half. Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high
levels during the next few days as the region 808 fully rotates
onto the visible disk. The proton flux is currently increasing
and the >10MeV protons may cross the 10 pfu threshold on
08 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 2213 1011
Learmonth 4 2213 0000
Culgoora 5 2113 2111
Canberra 5 2213 2001
Hobart 6 2213 2011
Casey(Ant) 8 2333 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3202 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 14 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
10 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during
the next three days with some possibility of isolated active
periods on 09 September. A weak (16nT) impulse was observed in
the IPS magnetometer data at 1123UT on 07 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: Sever shortwave fadeouts were observed in the daylit
regions around 1717UT on 07 September due to a large flare (X17)
around this time. Due to the presence of a very active region
on the visible disk, more flares are expected. This may cause
shortwave fadeouts in the daylit regions during the next few
days. However, if the flare activities don't happen, mostly
normal conditions may be expected in most regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with significant degradations
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 18 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Due to a good possibility of strong flare activities
from a very active regions short wave fadeouts may be
observed during the day time in the next few days. However,
if the flare activities don't happen, mostly normal conditions
may be expected in most Aus/NZ regions during the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:33%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 446 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 75600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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