[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 7 09:49:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 2155UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
a long duration M1.3-class flare (maximum at 2200UT), from the
same location on the east limb as the long duration C2 flare
from yesterday. The source of this activity is most likely to
be returning active region 798. An associated CME, that should
not be earth directed, was visible in the GOES soft X-ray imagery.
Solar activity is expected to increase as this region rotates
on disc in the next 24 hours, with moderate to possibly high
levels of solar activity. The solar wind speed continued to decline
from 470km/s at 0000UT to be 430km/s at the time of this report.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT for the entire UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 2213 2211
Learmonth 8 3212 2312
Culgoora 5 2112 2212
Canberra 6 2113 2211
Hobart 6 2113 2211
Casey(Ant) 12 3333 2231
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 4234 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 2 days. Possible increase due to coronal hole effects for
09Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions
for the next 2 days, with quiet geomagnetic levels. Increased
solar activity is expected with the chance of SWF's possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
No data available during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Sep 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions observed during local
day and evening for all regions over the last 24 hours. Improving
conditions expected for the next 2 days, but with the chance
of SWF's due to an anticipated increase in solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 216000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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