[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 September 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 6 09:51:45 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 90/34 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
a long duration C2.7-class flare (maximum at 1040UT), from an active
region not currently on disc. LASCO imagery indicated a CME assocated
with this event from the east limb, that was non earth directed.
Solar activity is expected to increase over the next 2 days as
this region rotates on disc. The solar wind speed gradually declined
from 650km/s at 0000UT to be 450km/s at the time of this report.
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) was predominently neutral over the UT day, having only swung
southward at 2230UT and is currently -5nT.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
05/0135UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 2223 2222
Learmonth 8 2222 2322
Culgoora 8 2223 2222
Canberra 8 2223 2221
Hobart 9 2233 2222
Casey(Ant) 12 2433 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 4455 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
07 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
over the last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions tending to Quiet
levels are expected for the next 2 days as the solar wind velocity
declines and no recent geoeffective events.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions
for the next 2 days, with decreased geomagnetic activity and
no major active solar regions on the sun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
07 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected for all regions
over the next 2 days, where only Southern Aus/NZ regions may
experience possible depressed periods over the next 24 hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 666 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 368000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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