[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 11 09:53:12 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.8 09/2300UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0354UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.2    0604UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M3.7    0614UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.9    0907UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.2    1643UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M4.1    1937UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  X2.1    2211UT  probable   all    West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 100/48

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     High               High               High
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was high on 10 September as region 
808(S09E43) produced two X, three M and several C-class 
flares. The details of the major flares are as follows: 
M3.7(0614UT), M1.9(0907UT), X1.1(1643UT), M4.1(1936UT) 
and X2.1(2211UT). Due to particle contamination, high 
proton flux and unavailability of some LASCO images, it 
is not clear at this stage if any CME activity is associated 
to these events or not. However, a Type II and a Type IV 
radio bursts seem to be associated with the X1.8 flare with 
an estimated shock speed of 1088 km/s. Also a full halo CME 
has been associated to the X6 flare observed on 09 September. 
This CME activity may result in the arrival of a shock and 
strengthening of the solar wind stream on 11 September. A 
recurrent coronal hole may also strenthen the solar wind 
stream for a few days starting 12 September. Region 808 
remains large in size and magnetically very complex. It 
can produce more major flares during the next few days. 
The >10MeV proton event that started at 0215UT/08 September 
is expected to continue for the next 3 days, whereas, the 
>100MeV proton event that started at 1925UT/08 September may 
end by tomorrow. However, if major flare activities on the 
sun continue, the proton flux may remain enhanced. The 
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(Bz) remained slightly to moderately negative until 1400UT 
and then showed fluctuations on both sides of the normal value 
during the rest of the day, staying slightly to moderately 
northwards for relatively longer time intervals. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at high levels during the next 
few days. A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind 
at 0048UT on 10 Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      22   2343 3454
      Learmonth           25   2343 3554
      Culgoora            17   2342 3444
      Canberra            19   2343 3444
      Hobart              20   2333 3454
      Casey(Ant)          39   3-5- 5-55
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             121   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   1201 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    27    Mostly unsettled to active, minor and isolated 
                major storm periods possible. 
12 Sep    18    Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods 
                possible. 
13 Sep    18    Mostly unsettled to active, minor storm periods 
                possible. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 30 was issued on 10 September 
and is current for interval 10-11 September. Geomagnetic activity 
may rise upto minor and sometimes major storm levels on 11 September 
due a to a CME activity recorded on 09 September. The effect 
of a recurrent coronal hole and the ongoing transient flow may 
also keep the geomagnetic activity enhanced to minor storm levels 
on 12 and 13 September. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 08 09 2005 0235UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor          
12 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair           Poor          
13 Sep      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair-poor     
COMMENT: More shortwave fadeouts may be observed during the next 
few days. HF conditions are expected to show minor to moderate 
degradations on low and mid latitudes during the next three days. 
Strong degradations on high latitudes are likely during this 
period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 60% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  24

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    15    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                20% 
12 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                10% 
13 Sep    20    near predicted monthly values /depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 10 September 
and is current for interval 10-11 September. HF conditions may 
show minor to moderate degradations in Aus/NZ regions during 
the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    63000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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