[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Oct             13 Oct             14 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the previous UT day. Minor 
flaring is currently occurring in newly numbered region 814 (S06W11) 
which produced a C1.0 flare at 1720Z and a B3.5 at 2212Z. Background 
solar X-ray flux remains at very low levels. Overall solar activity 
is expected to continue at low levels over the next 24 hours, 
with further minor flaring possible from region 814. The solar 
wind velocity has dropped back to pre-coronal hole speeds as 
the Earth moves out of the coronal hole wind stream and was just 
below 450km/s at the time of this report. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2111 2211
      Darwin               4   2111 2212
      Learmonth            4   2101 2221
      Culgoora             4   2112 2111
      Canberra             4   2101 3111
      Hobart               3   2110 2111
      Casey(Ant)          11   4-32 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   2333 2013     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Oct     5    Quiet 
13 Oct     5    Quiet 
14 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet over the previous 
24 hours, except for the high latitudes which experienced active 
periods in response to continuous high solar wind speeds and 
occasional southward turnings of the IMF. As the Earth has now 
moved out of the coronal hole wind stream this high latitude 
activity is expected to settle back to quiet-unsettled levels. 
Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail at mid-low 
latitudes for the next 24-48 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal at mid and low latitudes 
over the previous 24 hours, with isolated periods of degraded 
HF at high latitudes in response to the unsettled geomagnetic 
field. Expect HF conditions to be normal over the next 24-48 
hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Oct    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Oct    26    near predicted monthly values 
13 Oct    28    near predicted monthly values 
14 Oct    30    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was stable over 
the past 24 hours. MUFs were near predicted monthly values. Expect 
normal HF conditions to continue over the next 24-48 hours in 
the Australian region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 625 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   247000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"