[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 11 09:33:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day
with no significant flare activity. Background solar X-ray flux
continued to be at very low levels. Overall solar activity is
expected to continue at very low levels over the next 24 hours.
No new regions were numbered. The solar wind velocity remains
elevated at 620km/s due to a recurrent equtorial coronal hole,
which is having a continuing unsettling effect on the geomagnetic
field, however it is expected to wane over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 2124 2112
Darwin 7 2223 2112
Learmonth 6 2123 2111
Culgoora 8 2224 1112
Canberra 7 2124 1012
Hobart 7 2124 1112
Casey(Ant) 11 --43 2113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 3212 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active over
the previous 24 hours in continuing reponse to the coronal hole
solar wind stream, particularly in the high latitude regions
where minor storm periods were observed. Two reasonably large
impulses were also observed at mid latitudes at 0940Z and 1140Z,
which may have been due to a sudden impulse in the solar wind.
The geomagnetic field is expected to settle back to quiet-unsettled
levels over the next 24 hours as the coronal hole wind stream
wanes, however isolated active periods are possible at high latitudes
in response to IMF Bz southward turnings.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were near normal at mid and low latitudes
over the previous 24 hours, with continuing periods of degraded
HF at high latitudes in response to the unsettled to active geomagnetic
field. These conditions are expected to persist until the current
geomagnetic activity subsides.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 30 near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 34 about 10% above predicted monthly values
13 Oct 33 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the Australian region was largely
unaffected by the unsettled geomagnetic conditions with MUFs
remaining near predicted monthly values. However there were periods
of degraded conditions at high latitudes where geomagnetic activity
ranged from unsettled to active. Expect near normal HF conditions
to prevail over the next 24 hours in the Australian region, however
until the current geomagnetic activity subsides, periods of degraded
conditions may be experienced in the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 628 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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