[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 10 09:26:49 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 OCTOBER - 12 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Oct: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the previous UT day
with no significant flare activity. Background solar X-ray flux
continued to be at very low levels. Region 813 now has a relatively
stable CAI beta structure. Overall solar activity is expected
to continue at very low levels over the next 24 hours. No new
regions were numbered. A recurrent equatorial coronal hole should
move out of geoeffective position today. The solar wind velocity
currently remains elevated at 630km/s due to the coronal hole,
however it is expected to wane over the next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 2123 2132
Darwin 7 2222 2132
Learmonth 6 2112 2132
Culgoora 7 2123 2122
Canberra 8 2123 2132
Hobart 7 2213 2122
Casey(Ant) 14 4--3 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22 4444 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was unsettled over the previous
24 hours in continuing reponse to the coronal hole solar wind
stream, particularly in the high latitude regions where minor
storm periods were observed. The geomagnetic field is expected
to settle back to quiet-unsettled levels over the next 24 hours
as the coronal hole wind stream wanes, however isolated active
periods are possible at high latitudes in response to IMF Bz
southward turnings.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal to slightly depressed at mid
and low latitudes over the previous 24 hours, however periods
of strong D-region absorption were experienced at high latitudes
in response to strong energetic particle precipitation related
to the enhanced geomagnetic activity. HF conditions are expected
to be normal for the next 24-48 hours at mid and low latitudes,
with continuing degradation at high latitudes until the current
geomagnetic activity subsides.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Oct 25 near predicted monthly values
11 Oct 28 near predicted monthly values
12 Oct 30 about 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The ionosphere in the southern Australian and Antarctic
regions was slightly depressed over the previous 24 hours in
response to elevated geomagnetic activity levels. Expect near
normal HF conditions to prevail over the next 24 hours in the
Australian region, although preiods of degraded conditions may
be experienced in the Antarctic regions as a result of continuing
geomagnetic disturbance.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Oct
Speed: 665 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 248000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list